Every week through the 2024-25 NBA season, we are going to take a deeper dive into a few of the league’s greatest storylines in an try to find out whether or not developments are based mostly extra in reality or fiction shifting ahead.
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The NBA Cup discipline is all the way down to 4 groups. As a lot as we respect the gathering of expertise on the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets — and they’re good groups (possibly not championship good however “could win the NBA Cup” good) — the query of who’s one of the best participant left within the event is 2 names lengthy.
The Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the 2 favorites to win NBA Cup MVP, . Additionally they be part of the Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Dončić and Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokić as favorites to win the league’s regular-season MVP award.
Antetokounmpo is an institution celebrity, a two-time MVP, . The 30-year-old has been a top-four MVP candidate for the reason that 2018-19 season, when Gilgeous-Alexander made his NBA debut. Gilgeous-Alexander, runner-up to Jokić for final yr’s MVP, is new to this dialog. To even have the dialogue, measuring Gilgeous-Alexander towards Antetokounmpo, is a credit score to the 26-year-old’s rise.
However allow us to have it now: Who’s having fun with the superior season?
Historically talking, there isn’t a clear statistical distinction between the 2.
Antetokounmpo (22 video games): 32.7 PTS (61/18/61), 11.4 REB, 6.0 AST (3.5 TO), 1.5 BLK, 0.6 STL
Gilgeous-Alexander (24 video games): 30.2 PTS (52/34/86), 5.4 REB, 6.3 AST (2.7 TO), 1.8 STL, 1.0 BLK
The numbers replicate their totally different types. Antetokounmpo is a wrecking ball, wreaking havoc on the rim on each ends of the court docket. Gilgeous-Alexander is a carving knife, slicing into lanes on both facet of the ground and serving everybody.
If you wish to argue that Antetokounmpo’s rebounding is a difference-maker right here, as is his size on protection, the place that may go unnoticed within the field rating, I’m with you. I additionally assume Gilgeous-Alexander’s three-level scoring is as impactful, and he occurs to be the driving power of each an elite offense that commits the fewest turnovers per sport and an elite protection that forces essentially the most turnovers per sport. Extra on that later.
If we’re nitpicking, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored or assisted on 1,108 factors by way of his workforce’s first 24 video games. Antetokounmpo has scored or assisted on 1,076 factors. And if we run them by way of , Gilgeous-Alexander has saved his workforce 83 factors. Antetokounmpo has saved his 58.
That may be a whole distinction of 57 factors in Gilgeous-Alexander’s favor, sufficient to make a problem out of Antetokounmpo’s two rest-filled absences this season. (Gilgeous-Alexander has but to overlook a sport.)
As for superior statistics, we might argue all day about who leads who during which class.
Antetokounmpo: 31.5 PER, 63.0 TS%, 37.1 USG%, 3.8 WS, 8.6 BPM, 2.0 VORP
Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.6 PER, 62.6 TS%, 33.2 USG%, 4.8 WS, 10.2 BPM, 2.6 VORP
For each superior metric that Gilgeous-Alexander leads Antetokounmpo, you’ll find one during which Antetokounmpo leads Gilgeous-Alexander. For those who ask for my two favorites, and , Gilgeous-Alexander leads each.
I’m not going to lean both method on this one. What I discover attention-grabbing is that this: Gilgeous-Alexander has a markedly decrease utilization fee than Antetokounmpo however significantly extra win shares — the league’s most, in reality. What does that say about their groups? And what do their groups say about every’s affect?
Everybody understands the Thunder (19-5) are a greater workforce. They lead a stacked Western Convention by 2.5 video games. The Bucks (13-11) are struggling to keep up a assured playoff seed within the weaker Jap Convention. Oklahoma Metropolis is thrashing its opponents by 12 factors per 100 possessions this season, a margin that may rank second in NBA historical past behind Michael Jordan’s 72-win Chicago Bulls (13.4). Milwaukee’s internet score (1.1) solely climbed north of zero in latest weeks, because it beat up on a light-weight schedule.
The Thunder are 11-5 towards groups with successful data. The Bucks are 3-8 towards groups .500 or higher.
By extension in a comparability this shut it ought to observe that Gilgeous-Alexander’s teammates are higher than Antetokounmpo’s. And I believe that’s true for essentially the most half. However we must always not discredit Milwaukee.
Damian Lillard is an eight-time All-Star. Khris Middleton is a three-time All-Star who solely lately returned to the rotation. Brook Lopez is a one-time All-Star who has constantly competed for All-Defensive recognition in recent times. . Bobby Portis completed third in final yr’s Sixth Man of the Yr voting. Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright had been lauded on low salaries. Milwaukee will not be with out expertise to steer, even when it’s best acknowledged for previous efficiency.
Not so in Oklahoma Metropolis, the place Jalen Williams is just now realizing his All-Star potential, as was Chet Holmgren earlier than a pelvic fracture. Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are All-Defensive-caliber enhances. The Thunder’s flamethrower is Isaiah Joe. They’re wealthy with developmental success tales all through the roster, and so they have the draft capital to improve every time and wherever they select.
It also needs to observe, then, that Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder are higher with out him than Antetokounmpo’s Bucks are with out him. And that is the place the wicket will get sticky. Oklahoma Metropolis is 12.9 factors per 100 significant possessions higher when its celebrity is on the ground, . Milwaukee is 4 factors per 100 possessions higher when its celebrity is on the court docket.
Antetokounmpo is a champion. Don’t forget. He has a handful of his championship teammates and swapped one among his finest for Lillard. of dealing Jrue Vacation for Lillard, however by way of pedigree, the Bucks have it in spades. The tradition is on shaky floor, biking by way of coaches, losers of three straight playoff sequence, although accidents could also be guilty. Regardless, we all know who the Bucks are, withering round Antetokounmpo, except the remainder of this event can change our minds.
Conversely, there isn’t a licensed future Corridor of Famer for Gilgeous-Alexander to share his burden. The Thunder are figuring it out on their very own in actual time, and so they need to him. Working example: Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 51% of the Thunder’s factors within the clutch this season, against Antetokounmpo, who’s scoring 27% of the Bucks’ factors when the rating is inside 5 factors in a sport’s ultimate minutes.
We additionally know who Antetokounmpo is: a battering ram. He scores 79% of his factors both inside of three toes or on the free-throw line and prefers the previous. Opponents depart him open outdoors the restricted space, the place he’s capturing 42% on 8.3 makes an attempt per sport. That’s 0.86 factors per possession. You possibly can construct a wall reverse Antetokounmpo. He’ll discover his method by way of, however you might maintain him off lengthy sufficient to win.
It’s why the Bucks chased Lilllard, to stability the ground from what Antetokounmpo’s wall had wrought. What had been a top-five offense beneath former Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer has turn into a middling outfit in two of the previous three seasons, together with this one, as opposing defenses have solved this riddle.
I simply don’t assume you may gradual Gilgeous-Alexander the identical method, at the least not but. For those who might, Williams wouldn’t be so good. Nor would Holmgren or anybody on the Thunder. As a result of Gilgeous-Alexander can rating from each stage, the protection by no means leaves him free. They should cease him from attending to the rim (the place he too is capturing 73%), hold him from the midrange and respect his 3-point leap shot.
The one technique to gradual him is that if he slows himself, which he’ll typically do, as a result of the sport is performed to his tempo. There is no such thing as a tactic he can’t remedy that doesn’t contain a double workforce. Each Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander will nonetheless get to their spots; it’s simply that Gilgeous-Alexander has extra spots to get to.
Willpower: Truth. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best participant left within the NBA Cup.
